Fact Check; Is Bobi Wine leading Museveni by 69% in the polls?

A viral post by the Kampala Journal has published an opinion poll claiming that NUP presidential candidate Kyagulanyi Robert Sentamu (Bobi Wine) is in the lead to win the Ugandan presidential elections.

The post cliams that Bobi Wine currently has 69% followed by the incumbent Yoweri Museveni(NRM)-25%.

The post ranks all the other candidates as follows;

• Mugisha Muntu(ANT)-2%

• Nandala Mafabi(FDC)-0.5%

• Frank Bulira(RPP)-0.0001%

• Elton Joseph Mabirizi(CP)-0.00001%

• Mubarak Munyagwa(CMP)0.00000001%

• Kasibante Robert (NPP)-0.000000000000001%

This tweet by the Kampala Journal claims that Bobi Wine is in the lead by 69% in an opinion poll

Our investigation has, however, shown this poll to be false and misleading.

Our Findings

There is no credible or verifiable opinion poll labeled “Week 9” that matches the percentages circulating online for Uganda’s 2026 presidential race. A review of publicly available polling reports, media coverage, and political commentary shows no established polling organisation releasing weekly sequential polls under such a label.

The closest reference point is a November 2025 poll shared by the same media house Kampala Journal on X (formerly Twitter). That poll reported National Unity Platform (NUP) leader Bobi Wine at 68 percent, with President Yoweri Museveni trailing, though without a clearly stated percentage and without a full breakdown for other potential contenders such as Mugisha Muntu or Nandala Mafabi.

This contrasts sharply with a counter-poll circulating online that instead places Museveni at 70 percent and Bobi Wine at 20 percent, highlighting major inconsistencies across even the few unverified sources.

Crucially, none of these polls were labelled “Week 9,” nor were they accompanied by transparent methodologies, sample sizes, or margin-of-error disclosures.

The red flags

Several red flags suggest the alleged “Week 9 opinion polls” are fabricated:

The poll bears figures with impossible precision. Figures such as 0.000000000000001 percent attributed to some candidates are statistically implausible. Legitimate opinion polls typically round results to whole numbers or, at most, one decimal place.

No recognised polling firm, academic institution, credible media house, or civil society organization has published or cited a “Week 9” polling series.

Authentic polls clearly state sample size, geographic coverage, data collection method, and margin of error none of which accompany the viral claims. The Lack of methodological transparency is a clear red flag.

Broader Context

As Uganda moves closer to the 2026 elections, unverified opinion polls frequently circulate on social media, often reflecting partisan interests rather than empirical research. While political analysts note growing youth support for Bobi Wine and the continued advantage of President Museveni’s incumbency in some surveys, these trends are discussed broadly and cautiously without the extreme or hyper-precise figures seen in the viral posts.

Previous fact-checks of election-related content in Uganda show a pattern of fabricated statistics being used to project inevitability, suppress voter morale, or provoke online confrontation.

There is no evidence supporting the existence of verified “Week 9 opinion polls” with the percentages currently circulating online for Uganda’s 2026 presidential election. The data bears multiple hallmarks of fabrication and should not be treated as credible polling information.

Credible polls so far

Afrobarometer's February 2025 survey conducted January to February 2024 by Hatchile Consult with 2,400 respondents found that 56% would vote NRM, 11% NUP (Bobi Wine), and 4% FDC if elections were held then; Museveni personally enjoyed 39% "trust a lot" and 70% job approval.​

A graph from the Afrobarometer Survey showing the percentage of Ugandans who have trust in President Yoweri Museveni

A Pulse256 Youth Insights Network (PYIN) poll from October 2025 projected Museveni at 70%, Bobi Wine at 20%, with rural dominance (76% NRM) offsetting urban NUP strength.​

Vision Group's June 2025 citizens' manifesto poll placed Museveni ahead.

Credibility Concerns

Afrobarometer stands out as a non-partisan pollster with a transparent +/-2% margin of error and a national sample, earning higher credibility than social media claims like these X posts alleging 68% for Bobi Wine, or partisan outlets.

Many polls lack full methodology disclosure, and urban-rural divides persist, with opposition stronger in cities but incumbency prevailing nationally.​

No polls post-November 2025 appear in current data, and experts note authoritarian pressures may skew results ahead of January 2026 voting.

Why This Matters

Opinion polls play a significant role in shaping public perception during election periods. Fabricated or misleading polling data can distort voter expectations, inflame political tensions, and undermine trust in legitimate research and democratic processes particularly in a highly polarised pre-election environment like Uganda’s ahead of 2026.