Debunking Trump's Sea Level Rise Myth: 'One-Eighth' Inch Over 355 Years? Reality Says Otherwise

In a viral video circulating on X (formerly Twitter), former U.S. President Donald Trump is seen rallying supporters with a quip that has become a staple of his climate scepticism:

"These poor fools talking about Global Warming, where the ocean is going to rise 8th of an Inch over 355 Years."

The clip, laced with patriotic imagery of oil rigs and cheering crowds, positions Trump as a defender of "real" American priorities like cheap energy against what he calls a "Climate Scam." The post claims his policies ensure "Americans pay way less for energy."

This narrative resonates in Africa, where climate impacts like rising seas threaten coastal nations from Senegal to South Africa, displacing millions and costing billions in adaptation. But is Trump's dismissal grounded in fact? Fact Watch Africa, in the spirit of the Debunk Media Initiative's commitment to evidence-based journalism, dives into the claims. Spoiler: The science tells a far graver story.

The Claim: A Trickle of Sea Rise Over Centuries

Trump's figure, one-eighth of an inch (about 3.2 mm) over 355 years, isn't new. He's peddled variations since 2019, shrinking the timeline from 400 years to as few as 250, while insisting the threat is negligible compared to "nuclear warming." In the video, he laughs it off, suggesting more "beachfront property" for golf courses like his Mar-a-Lago estate.

Fact check: False and off by over 1,000 times. Global sea levels are already rising at about 0.17 inches (4.3 mm) *per year*, more than double the 1993 rate, according to NASA data. That means Trump's "355-year" projection happens in under two years today. NOAA confirms the current annual rate matches his total claim exactly.

Projections paint an escalating crisis. Under high-emissions scenarios, the IPCC and NOAA forecast 2–7 feet (0.6–2.2 meters) of rise by 2100, and up to 13 feet (3.9 meters) by 2150 for the U.S. alone. A January 2025 study in *Earth's Future* warns of 1.6–6.2 feet (0.5–1.9 meters) by century's end if emissions soar—90 cm more than prior UN estimates. Locally, factors like subsidence amplify this: In West Africa's Niger Delta or Egypt's Nile, rises could exceed global averages by 50%, fueling floods and salinization.

Trump's quip ignores acceleration from melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, now contributing half of annual rise. As UC Santa Cruz's Gary Griggs notes, such claims are "totally out of touch with reality." For Africa, where 230 million live within 1 meter of sea level, even 8 inches by 2050 could trigger $1 trillion in annual flood damages across 136 coastal cities.

The "Climate Scam" Label: Science vs. Spin

Dismissing climate action as a "scam" overlooks 99% scientific consensus: Human emissions have warmed the planet 1.1°C since 1900, per the IPCC, driving extremes from Sahel droughts to Cape Town wildfires. Trump's pivot to "nuclear warming" conflates geopolitics with physics—valid threats, but no excuse to downplay fossil fuel-driven change.

Bonus Claim: "Way Less" Energy Costs Under Trump?

The post credits Trump with slashing U.S. energy bills. Fact check: Mostly false. Residential electricity averaged 12.5–13 cents/kWh under Trump (2017–2020), stable pre-COVID. Under Biden (2021–2024), it hit 14–16 cents amid war-driven spikes, a 25–30% jump. But in Trump's second term (2025 so far), prices rose 6–10% year-over-year twice inflation's pace due to natural gas surges (up 40%) and data centre demand. Gasoline? $2.48/gal average under Trump vs. $3.10 under Biden (down from $5 in 2022). Overall, household energy costs climbed 30% under Biden, but Trump's "halving" pledge rings hollow as bills tick up.

Global markets, not just policy, drive this. Trump's fossil fuel push ignores renewables' cost edge solar/wind now cheaper than coal in 95% of the world, per IRENA, a boon for Africa's energy access.

Why This Matters for Africa

Misinformation like Trump's erodes urgency when we need it most. Rising seas could submerge Lagos slums or Mozambique ports, exacerbating migration and inequality. Yet solutions abound: Africa's vast solar potential could power the continent while cutting emissions.