Fact check: Did NUP plead to join IPOD for financial help

NUP Secretary General David Lewis Rubongoya and party president Kyagulanyi Sentamu Robert. Courtesy - Apple Lenz

A viral post on X by @_Huza01, on September 19, 2025, shares images of a letter purportedly from David Lewis Rubongoya, Secretary-General of Uganda's National Unity Platform (NUP). The post alleges that the letter demonstrates NUP's decision to join the Interparty Organisation for Dialogue (IPOD), attributing the supposed shift to financial desperation with the caption: "Lubongoya writes to Electoral Commission accepting to join IPOD, they can't afford to lose the Money😁😁😆😆😆😅 Opposition ya Uganda mat....ko but...ko🙄." This claim stands in stark contrast to NUP's earlier rejection of IPOD membership on September 2, 2025, prompting scrutiny over whether it signals a genuine policy reversal.

Verification Process

Our analysis involved reviewing the letter's details, NUP's historical position, relevant legal context, and ongoing public discourse. The document in question, dated September 17, 2025, is addressed to the Chairperson of the Electoral Commission (EC) and bears the title "CONTINUING ILLEGAL EXCLUSION OF THE NATIONAL UNITY PLATFORM IN MATTERS CONCERNING THE NATIONAL CONSULTATIVE FORUM AND ITS CONSTITUTIVE ORGANS." It cites previous letters protesting NUP's omission from consultations on the amended Political Parties and Organisations Act, 2005, which folds IPOD into the National Consultative Forum. In the letter, Rubongoya calls for NUP's immediate inclusion in these discussions, declares any decisions made without the party as null and void, and mentions an active court case challenging the law's validity. Importantly, it stops short of explicitly accepting IPOD membership or abandoning NUP's boycott, focusing instead on contesting procedural unfairness amid the existing legal setup. As of September 20, 2025, no public acknowledgement or response from the EC or IPOD has confirmed a change in NUP's status regarding membership.

NUP has historically criticised IPOD, terming it as a tool for co-opting opposition parties under the ruling regime, a stance reiterated in their September 2, 2025, refusal, which criticised its lack of impact on democratic progress.

This aligns with external assessments, including a 2021 Makerere University study highlighting IPOD's reduced policy influence since 2010, a 2023 Afrobarometer survey showing that over half of Ugandans perceive financial coercion on opposition groups, and an April 2025 report from the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy underscoring NUP's doubts about the platform's efficacy. Recent media reports have portrayed the letter as a "U-turn" driven by funding concerns under the June 2025 amendments, which tie annual government allocations (totalling Shs3.1 billion, with NUP potentially qualifying for around Shs800 million) to IPOD participation.

However, this interpretation appears to exaggerate the letter's content, which emphasises rights to consultation rather than formal affiliation. Compounding the context, NUP is grappling with separate electoral hurdles related to the presidential nomination of their leader, Robert Kyagulanyi (popularly known as Bobi Wine). Under Ugandan law, presidential candidates must submit signatures from at least 100 registered voters in each of at least two-thirds of the country's districts, which is approximately 98 out of 146 districts, to qualify for nomination. On September 19, 2025, NUP's official X account and statements from Rubongoya highlighted that the EC had invalidated a significant portion of their submitted signatures, validating them for only 80 districts and requiring endorsements from an additional 18 districts to meet the threshold.

With the nomination period running from September 3 to September 24, 2025, NUP has launched an urgent appeal for more signatures, accusing the EC of bias and unfair scrutiny that has shifted focus away from IPOD-related matters.

No new official updates on IPOD membership have emerged by September 20, 2025, though speculation about financial pressures continues in online discussions.

Reactions on X reflect division, with some users like @KalyowaY labelling the membership claim as "FAKE!" while invoking legal obligations, and others echoing suspicions of monetary influence. Video statements from Rubongoya prioritise addressing the nomination crisis over clarifying IPOD positions.

While the letter is genuine, it does not equate to an acceptance of IPOD membership; its core aim is to challenge NUP's exclusion from key consultations amid a pending legal battle. Claims of financial motivations are speculative and lack direct proof, though the new funding rules provide a plausible backdrop for external pressures. As of September 20, 2025, there is no evidence of an actual reversal.

Broader Implications:

Framing this letter as a capitulation could erode NUP's standing as an opposition voice in the lead-up to the 2026 elections, deepening public cynicism toward political processes in Uganda. In an environment where funding mechanisms and electoral rules often intersect with power dynamics, precise fact-checking is essential to foster informed debate and counter misinformation that exploits these tensions.